Which one is doing the most work
Answer it in your head first.
Someone says they have stopped going to things because nobody there really wants them, and that they know this because the last three times nobody messaged afterwards. Which of the four is running, and what has not happened yet?
Deciding in advance, checked only against itself. Nobody messaging afterwards is genuinely ambiguous, and it is being read as a verdict. What has not happened is any test. The prediction was made, the outcome was interpreted to fit it, and no new information was ever allowed in, which is how the loop in lesson two stays closed.